CapX: The old politics is dead. The old parties aren’t

In leisure centres and town halls across the country, the cheers of the victors can be heard alongside the half-hearted claps of the vanquished. Democracy at its most local – and for the people involved, most personal – is being played out in over 130 English councils, including every borough in London. Few beyond the immediate area will long recall what happens in individual councils. But what will linger is the big picture painted by the results – as well as the consequences for the parties and their leaders.

Local elections are often bad for governments. On only five occasions since 1979 has an incumbent government gained seats in mid-term local elections, and usually as a formerly strong third party begins to lose support (the now Lib Dems 1988 and 1989, and again in 2011) or when the government is popular (Boris Johnson’s Tories amidst the vaccine rollout in 2021). Neither situation applies today. So nobody should be surprised – nor is anybody – that Labour are losing seats all over the country.

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